Table Of Content’
Nigeria s 2015 General Elections
LadiHamalai(cid:129)SamuelEgwu(cid:129)J.SholaOmotola
’
Nigeria s 2015
General Elections
Continuity and Change in Electoral Democracy
LadiHamalai SamuelEgwu
NationalInstituteforLegislative DepartmentofPoliticalScience
Studies UniversityofJos
Abuja,Nigeria Jos,PlateauState,Nigeria
J.SholaOmotola
ResearchandTrainingDepartment
NationalInstituteforLegislative
Studies
Abuja,Nigeria
ISBN978-3-319-54095-5 ISBN978-3-319-54096-2(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-54096-2
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017939865
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C
ONTENTS
1 Introduction 1
2 Theoretical andStructural IssuesinNigerian Politics 13
3 Continuity and ChangeinNigeria’sElectoralDemocracy 45
4 Party Systemandthe Dominance of the People’s
Democratic Party 73
5 Trends inVoter Behaviour,1999–2015 103
6 Trends inElection Outcomes,1999–2015 125
7 Democratic Governance andPolitical Accountability,
1999–2015 139
8 ElectoralReform andElectoralAdministration, 1999–
2015 165
9 Party Politicsin the 2015Nigerian Elections 183
10 The 2015 PresidentialElection 203
v
vi CONTENTS
11 The 2015 National AssemblyElection 231
12 The 2015 GubernatorialElection 251
13 The2015ElectionsandtheFutureofElectoralDemocracy 273
Bibliography 303
Index 307
A A
BOUT THE UTHORS
Dr Ladi Hamalai is the Director-General of the National Institute for
Legislative Studies (NILS). An Associate Professor, she was the pioneer
Project Coordinator of Policy Analysis and Research Project (PARP),
National Assembly, since 2004. She holds Doctorate Degree in
Development Studies of the University of Sussex, Brighton, UK. Dr Ladi
lectured in the University of Maiduguri and Nigerian Defence Academy
from1982to2003.AspecialistineconomicpolicymakinginNigeria,she
hasauthoredseveralinternationalpublicationsandholdsNationalAwards:
MemberoftheOrderofFederalRepublic(MFR),2001andoneofthe50
WomenofDistinctionhonouredbythePresidencyin2010.
Samuel Egwu is Professor of Political Economy and Development
StudiesintheDepartmentofPoliticalScience,UniversityofJos.Aformer
President of the Nigerian Political Science Association, he previously
worked as the Governance Adviser to the United Nations Development
Programme in Nigeria. He has published extensively on governance in
Nigeria. He was a member of the 2014 National Conference as a Kogi
statedelegatetochartanewpoliticalcourseforthecountry.In2017,he
was appointed a Resident Electoral Commissioner of the Independent
NationalElectoral Commission (INEC).
J. Shola Omotola ([email protected]) is Professor of Political
Science and Head of Department at the Federal University, Oye-Ekiti,
Ekiti State, Nigeria. He has previously worked as a Consultant and Head
of the Socio-Political Unit of the Department of Research and Training,
National Institute for Legislative Studies (NILS), National Assembly,
vii
viii ABOUTTHEAUTHORS
Abuja, Nigeria. He was, until August 2015, a Senior Lecturer in the
Department of Political Science, Redeemer’s University, Nigeria. He
obtained his PhD in Comparative African Politics and Governance from
the University of Ibadan, Nigeria. His primary research interests are in
comparativeAfricangovernanceinstitutions,democratizationandelection
studies, legislative studies, oil and environmental politics in the Niger
Delta and conflict and peacebuilding. His publications on these and
related themes have appeared in African Affairs, Commonwealth and
Comparative Politics, African and Asian Studies, Africa Review, Africa
Today, African Security Review, African Sociological Review, Journal of
African Law, Taiwan Journal of Democracy etc. He is co-editor of The
State in Contemporary Nigeria: Issues, Perspectives and Challenges, 2016;
The Legislature and Governance in Nigeria (2014); and Horror in
Paradise: Framework for Understanding the Crisis of the Niger Delta,
2014.
L T
IST OF ABLES
Table4.1 Compositionoffederalhouseofrepresentativesbypolitical
parties,1959–1964 84
Table4.2 Compositionofsenatebypoliticalparties,1979–1983 84
Table4.3 Compositionofhouseofrepresentativesandsenateby
politicalparties,1999–2015 85
Table4.4 Compositionofgovernorshipseatsbypoliticalparties,
1999–2015 86
Table5.1 Nigeriavoterregistrationprofile(1959–2015) 112
Table5.2 VoterregistrationandturnoutinNigeria’spresidential
election,1999–2015 113
Table5.3 Voterregistrationandturnoutinburkinafaso,capeverde,
chadandghanapresidentialelectionsince1991 116
Table5.4 SouthAfricanelections:Votingage,population,voter
registrationandturnout 116
Table5.5 VoterregistrationandturnoutinSriLankaandSingapore
presidentialelectionsince1994 117
Table5.6 Acomparisonofthepercentageofvoterturnoutinthelast
parliamentary 118
Table6.1 Presidentialelectionresultbypoliticalparty(1999–2015) 131
Table6.2 Distributionofgovernorsbypoliticalparties(1999–2015) 132
Table6.3 Re-electionandretentionrateintheUSsenate 132
Table10.1 Asummaryofselectedelectionobservationreportsin
Nigeria,1999–2015 213
Table10.2 Resultsofthepresidentialelection,2015 217
Table10.3 Resultsof2015presidentialelectionbygeo-politicalzones 218
Table10.4 Resultofthe1999presidentialelection 218
ix
x LISTOFTABLES
Table10.5 Spatialbreakdownofvoterturnoutinpresidentialelec-
tions,2011and2015 219
Table10.6 Resultofthe2003presidentialelection 220
Table10.7 Resultofthe2007presidentialelection 221
Table10.8 Resultofthe2011presidentialelection 222
Table10.9 Voterturnoutinpresidentialelections,1959–2007 222
Table11.1 Compositionofthenationalassembly,basedonthe1999
electionresults 235
Table11.2 Compositionofthenationalassembly,basedonthe2003
electionresults 236
Table11.3 Compositionofthenationalassembly,basedonthe2007
electionresults 237
Table11.4 Compositionofthenationalassembly,basedonthe2011
electionresults 237
Table11.5 WomenrepresentationintheNA,1999–2011 238
Table11.6 Compositionofthenationalassembly,basedonthe2015
electionresults 244
Table12.1 Configurationofgovernorshipseatsamongpartiesbefore
the2015election 253
Table12.2 Resultsofthe2015gubernatorialelections 266
