International Energy Agency. Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map. World Energy Outlook Special

134 Pages·2013·4.9 MB·English

REDR AW ING
THE
ENERGY-CLIMATE
M A P
World Energy Outlook Special Report
REDRAWING THE ENERGY-CLIMATE MAP
World Energy Outlook Special Report
Governments have decided collectively that the world needs to limit the
average global temperature increase to no more than 2 oC and international
negotiations are engaged to that end. Yet any resulting agreement will
not emerge before 2015 and new legal obligations will not begin before
2020. Meanwhile, despite many countries taking new actions, the world is
drifting further and further from the track it needs to follow.
The energy sector is the single largest source of climate-changing
greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting these is an essential focus of
action. The World Energy Outlook has published detailed analysis of the
energy contribution to climate change for many years. But, amid major
international economic preoccupations, there are worrying signs that the
issue of climate change has slipped down the policy agenda. This Special
Report seeks to bring it right back on top by showing that the dilemma can
be tackled at no net economic cost.
The report:
„ Maps out the current status and expectations of global climate and
energy policy – what is happening and what (more) is needed?
„ Sets out four specific measures for the energy sector that can be quickly
and effectively implemented, at no net economic cost, to help keep the
2 oC target alive while international negotiations continue.
„ Indicates elements of action to achieve further reductions, after 2020.
„ Demonstrates that the energy sector, in its own interest, needs to address
now the risks implicit in climate change – whether they be the physical
impacts of climate change or the consequences of more drastic action
later by governments as the need to curb emissions becomes imperative.
For more information, and the free download of this report, please visit:
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/energyclimatemap
REDR AW ING
THE
ENERGY-CLIMATE
M A P
World Energy Outlook Special Report
10 June 2013
001-02_pages de début_Climate Excerpt.indd 1 30/05/13 12:17
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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orrgganiisssaattiiooons anndd ootthheer sstakeholders.
IEA member countries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
© OECD/IEA, 2013 Slovak Republic
InternationaallEEnneergy Agency Spain
9 rue de lla Fédération Sweden
75739 Paris Ceeddeex 15, France
Switzerland
www.iea.org Turkey
United Kingdom
Please note that this publication United States
is subject to specific restrictions
that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission
The terms and conditions are available online at also participates in
http://www.iea.org/termsandconditionsuseandcopyright/ the work of the IEA.
001-02_pages de début_Climate Excerpt.indd 2 30/05/13 12:17
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by the Directorate of Global Energy Economics (GEE) of the
(cid:47)nterna(cid:415)onal Energy (cid:4)gency ((cid:47)E(cid:4))(cid:856) (cid:47)t was designed and directed by (cid:38)(cid:258)(cid:415)(cid:346)(cid:3)(cid:17)(cid:349)(cid:396)(cid:381)(cid:367), Chief
Economist of the (cid:47)E(cid:4)(cid:856) The analysis was co(cid:882)ordinated by (cid:62)(cid:258)(cid:437)(cid:396)(cid:258)(cid:3)(cid:18)(cid:381)(cid:460)(cid:460)(cid:349) and (cid:100)(cid:349)(cid:373)(cid:437)(cid:396)(cid:3)(cid:39)(cid:442)(cid:367)(cid:856)
Principal contributors to this report were (cid:24)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:3)(cid:24)(cid:381)(cid:396)(cid:374)(cid:286)(cid:396)(cid:3)and(cid:3)(cid:68)(cid:258)(cid:396)(cid:272)(cid:381)(cid:3)(cid:17)(cid:258)(cid:396)(cid:381)(cid:374)(cid:349), (cid:18)(cid:346)(cid:396)(cid:349)(cid:400)(cid:3)(cid:17)(cid:286)(cid:400)(cid:400)(cid:381)(cid:374),
(cid:18)(cid:346)(cid:396)(cid:349)(cid:400)(cid:415)(cid:374)(cid:258)(cid:3)(cid:44)(cid:381)(cid:381)(cid:282) (Climate Change Unit), (cid:38)(cid:258)(cid:271)(cid:349)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:3)K(cid:295)(cid:400)(cid:349)(cid:272)(cid:364)(cid:349),(cid:3)(cid:87)(cid:258)(cid:449)(cid:286)(cid:371)(cid:3)(cid:75)(cid:367)(cid:286)(cid:361)(cid:258)(cid:396)(cid:374)(cid:349)(cid:364), (cid:58)(cid:381)(cid:346)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:374)(cid:286)(cid:400)(cid:3)(cid:100)(cid:396)(cid:437)(cid:286)(cid:271)(cid:455),(cid:3)
K(cid:286)(cid:286)(cid:400)(cid:3) (cid:448)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:3) (cid:69)(cid:381)(cid:381)(cid:396)(cid:410),(cid:3) (cid:17)(cid:396)(cid:286)(cid:374)(cid:410)(cid:3) (cid:116)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:374)(cid:286)(cid:396) and(cid:3) (cid:24)(cid:258)(cid:448)(cid:349)(cid:282)(cid:3) (cid:116)(cid:349)(cid:367)(cid:364)(cid:349)(cid:374)(cid:400)(cid:381)(cid:374)(cid:856) (cid:75)ther contributors included
(cid:4)(cid:373)(cid:381)(cid:400)(cid:3) (cid:17)(cid:396)(cid:381)(cid:373)(cid:346)(cid:286)(cid:258)(cid:282), (cid:68)(cid:258)(cid:425)(cid:346)(cid:286)(cid:449)(cid:3) (cid:38)(cid:396)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:364), (cid:100)(cid:349)(cid:373)(cid:3) (cid:39)(cid:381)(cid:437)(cid:367)(cid:282), (cid:94)(cid:381)(cid:381)(cid:882)(cid:349)(cid:367)(cid:3) K(cid:349)(cid:373),(cid:3) (cid:4)(cid:410)(cid:400)(cid:437)(cid:346)(cid:349)(cid:410)(cid:381)(cid:3) K(cid:437)(cid:396)(cid:381)(cid:460)(cid:437)(cid:373)(cid:349),(cid:3)
(cid:58)(cid:437)(cid:374)(cid:336)(cid:3)(cid:116)(cid:381)(cid:381)(cid:3)(cid:62)(cid:286)(cid:286),(cid:3)(cid:18)(cid:346)(cid:349)(cid:258)(cid:396)(cid:258)(cid:3)(cid:68)(cid:258)(cid:396)(cid:396)(cid:349)(cid:272)(cid:272)(cid:346)(cid:349),(cid:3)K(cid:258)(cid:410)(cid:396)(cid:349)(cid:374)(cid:3)(cid:94)(cid:272)(cid:346)(cid:258)(cid:271)(cid:286)(cid:396)(cid:3)and(cid:3)(cid:94)(cid:346)(cid:437)(cid:449)(cid:286)(cid:349)(cid:3)(cid:127)(cid:346)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:336)(cid:856)(cid:3)(cid:94)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:282)(cid:396)(cid:258)(cid:3)(cid:68)(cid:381)(cid:381)(cid:374)(cid:286)(cid:455)(cid:3)and(cid:3)
(cid:68)(cid:258)(cid:336)(cid:282)(cid:258)(cid:367)(cid:286)(cid:374)(cid:258)(cid:3)(cid:94)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:381)(cid:272)(cid:364)(cid:258) pro(cid:448)ided essen(cid:415)al support(cid:856)
(cid:90)(cid:381)(cid:271)(cid:286)(cid:396)(cid:410)(cid:3)(cid:87)(cid:396)(cid:349)(cid:282)(cid:282)(cid:367)(cid:286) carried editorial responsibility(cid:856)
E(cid:454)perts from the (cid:75)ECD also contributed to the report, par(cid:415)cularly (cid:58)ean Chateau and
(cid:17)ertrand (cid:68)agn(cid:288)(cid:856) The report bene(cid:302)ted from (cid:448)aluable inputs, comments and feedbac(cid:364)
from other e(cid:454)perts within the (cid:47)E(cid:4), including (cid:62)as(cid:460)lo (cid:115)arro, Paolo (cid:38)ran(cid:364)l, (cid:116)olf (cid:44)eidug,
(cid:94)ean (cid:68)cCoy, (cid:58)uho (cid:62)ipponen, (cid:4)raceli (cid:38)ernande(cid:460) Pale(cid:460), (cid:122)amina (cid:94)aheb and (cid:68)ar(cid:364)us (cid:116)ra(cid:364)e(cid:856)
Than(cid:364)s also go to the (cid:47)E(cid:4)(cid:859)s Communica(cid:415)on and (cid:47)nforma(cid:415)on (cid:75)(cid:312)ce for their help in
producing the report, to Debra (cid:58)ustus for proofreading the te(cid:454)t, and to (cid:17)ertrand Sadin and
(cid:4)nne (cid:68)ayne for graphics(cid:856)
(cid:116)e appreciate the support and co(cid:882)opera(cid:415)on pro(cid:448)ided by organisa(cid:415)ons and indi(cid:448)iduals
including Sir (cid:17)rian (cid:44)os(cid:364)ins and his team in the Grantham (cid:47)ns(cid:415)tute for Climate Change at
(cid:47)mperial College (cid:62)ondon, (cid:68)a(cid:425)hias (cid:17)(cid:442)chner and (cid:60)at(cid:361)a (cid:38)rieler of the Potsdam (cid:47)ns(cid:415)tute for
Climate (cid:47)mpact (cid:90)esearch, Philip (cid:44)olden and (cid:69)eil Edwards of the (cid:75)pen Uni(cid:448)ersity, Ernst
(cid:90)auch of (cid:68)unich (cid:90)e, Sophie (cid:17)onnard of the United (cid:69)a(cid:415)ons En(cid:448)ironment Programme and
Detlef Peter (cid:448)an (cid:115)uuren of the (cid:69)etherlands En(cid:448)ironmental (cid:4)ssessment (cid:4)gency(cid:856) Special
than(cid:364)s also go to (cid:69)athaniel (cid:60)eohane of the En(cid:448)ironmental Defense (cid:38)und and (cid:68)arie (cid:115)enner
of (cid:115)enner Consul(cid:415)ng(cid:856)
(cid:4) high(cid:882)le(cid:448)el wor(cid:364)shop organised by the (cid:47)E(cid:4) was held on (cid:1012) (cid:68)arch (cid:1006)(cid:1004)(cid:1005)(cid:1007) in Paris to
gather essen(cid:415)al input to this study(cid:856) The wor(cid:364)shop par(cid:415)cipants ha(cid:448)e contributed
(cid:448)aluable new insights, feedbac(cid:364) and data for this analysis(cid:856) (cid:68)ore details may be found at
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/aboutweo/workshops(cid:856)
(cid:68)any e(cid:454)perts from outside of the (cid:47)E(cid:4) pro(cid:448)ided input, commented on the underlying
analy(cid:415)cal wor(cid:364) and re(cid:448)iewed the report(cid:856) Their comments and sugges(cid:415)ons were of great
(cid:448)alue(cid:856) They include(cid:855)
Richard Baron (cid:75)ECD
(cid:62)isa Barre(cid:425) (cid:38)oreign and Commonwealth (cid:75)(cid:312)ce, United (cid:60)ingdom
3
1 (cid:47)gor Bashma(cid:364)o(cid:448) CE(cid:69)Ef, Russia
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A, (cid:62)aura Bates Department of Energy and Climate Change, United (cid:60)ingdom
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© Acknowledgements 3
003-06 Acknowledgements_Climate Excerp.indd 3 30/05/13 12:18
(cid:75)lle B(cid:361)(cid:386)r(cid:364) (cid:68)inistry of (cid:38)inance, Sweden
(cid:60)ornelis Blo(cid:364) Ecofys
(cid:58)ason E(cid:856) Bordo(cid:299) Columbia University, United States
Eric Borremans B(cid:69)P Paribas (cid:47)nvestment Partners
David Brayshaw University of Reading, United (cid:60)ingdom
(cid:4)nna Broadhurst (cid:68)inistry of (cid:38)oreign (cid:4)(cid:299)airs and Trade, (cid:69)ew (cid:127)ealand
Carey Bylin US Environmental Protec(cid:415)on (cid:4)gency
Ben Caldeco(cid:425) Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of
(cid:75)(cid:454)ford
Patri(cid:364) Carl(cid:288)n (cid:115)a(cid:425)enfall
Richenda Connell (cid:4)cclima(cid:415)se
(cid:122)vo de Boer (cid:60)P(cid:68)G
(cid:58)os Delbe(cid:364)e Directorate General for Climate (cid:4)c(cid:415)on, European Commission
Philippe Desfosses Retraite (cid:4)ddi(cid:415)onnelle de la (cid:38)onc(cid:415)on Publi(cid:395)ue, (cid:38)rance
Bo Dic(cid:460)falusy (cid:68)inistry of Enterprise, Energy and Communica(cid:415)ons, Sweden
(cid:62)oic Douillet (cid:4)lstom
(cid:75)(cid:425)mar Edenhofer Potsdam (cid:47)ns(cid:415)tute for Climate (cid:47)mpact Research
Dolf Gielen (cid:47)nterna(cid:415)onal Renewable Energy (cid:4)gency
(cid:58)udi Greenwald Centre for Climate and Energy Solu(cid:415)ons, United States
(cid:62)eigh (cid:44)ac(cid:364)e(cid:425) (cid:4)lstom
David (cid:44)aw(cid:364)ins (cid:69)atural Resources Defense Council, United States
David (cid:44)one Shell
Esa (cid:44)yv(cid:263)rinen (cid:38)ortum
(cid:115)i(cid:361)ay (cid:47)yer (cid:116)orld Ban(cid:364)
(cid:60)e(cid:361)un (cid:58)iang Energy Research (cid:47)ns(cid:415)tute, China
(cid:44)aroon (cid:60)hesghi ExxonMobil
(cid:44)ans (cid:58)(cid:390)rgen (cid:60)och Energy (cid:4)gency, Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building,
Denmar(cid:364)
(cid:4)(cid:364)ihiro (cid:60)uro(cid:364)i The (cid:47)ns(cid:415)tute of Energy Economics, (cid:58)apan
Sarah (cid:62)adislaw Center for Strategic and (cid:47)nterna(cid:415)onal Studies, United States
(cid:58)ames (cid:62)eaton Carbon Trac(cid:364)er
(cid:44)oesung (cid:62)ee (cid:60)orea University Graduate School of Energy and Environment
Mar(cid:364) (cid:62)ewis Deutsche Ban(cid:364)
Surabi Menon Climate(cid:116)or(cid:364)s (cid:38)ounda(cid:415)on
(cid:4)lan Miller (cid:47)nterna(cid:415)onal (cid:38)inance Corpora(cid:415)on
3
1 Stephanie Miller (cid:47)nterna(cid:415)onal (cid:38)inance Corpora(cid:415)on
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A, (cid:115)incent Minier Schneider Electric
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Giuseppe Montesano E(cid:69)E(cid:62) 1
Claude (cid:69)ahon ED(cid:38)
(cid:60)a(cid:460)ushige (cid:69)obutani Ministry of Economy, Trade and (cid:47)ndustry, (cid:58)apan 2
Patric(cid:364) (cid:75)liva Michelin
Simon(cid:882)Eri(cid:364) (cid:75)llus (cid:38)ortum 3
(cid:44)enri Paillere (cid:69)uclear Energy (cid:4)gency
(cid:62)indene E(cid:856) Pa(cid:425)on (cid:127)urich (cid:47)nsurance Group 4
Stephanie Pfeifer (cid:47)ns(cid:415)tu(cid:415)onal (cid:47)nvestors Group on Climate Change
(cid:115)ol(cid:364)mar P(cid:327)ug Siemens
(cid:4)ntonio P(cid:327)(cid:442)ger (cid:38)ederal Ministry of Economics and Technology, Germany
Mar(cid:364) Rad(cid:364)a United (cid:69)a(cid:415)ons Environment Programme
Teresa Ribera (cid:47)S(cid:75)(cid:38)(cid:75)T(cid:75)(cid:69)
(cid:69)ic(cid:364) Robins (cid:44)SBC
(cid:58)(cid:442)rgen Rosenow E(cid:856)(cid:75)(cid:69)
Stéphanie Saunier Carbon (cid:62)imits
(cid:60)ris(cid:415)n Seyboth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Stephan Singer (cid:116)(cid:116)(cid:38) Interna(cid:415)onal
Pr(cid:460)emys(cid:371)aw Soba(cid:375)s(cid:364)i Ministry of the Environment, Poland
(cid:62)eena Srivastava The Energy and Resources Ins(cid:415)tute, India
(cid:4)ndrew Steer (cid:116)orld Resources Ins(cid:415)tute
(cid:69)icholas Stern (cid:62)ondon School of Economics
(cid:60)aren Sund SU(cid:69)D Energy
(cid:58)osué Tana(cid:364)a European Ban(cid:364) for Reconstruc(cid:415)on and Development
(cid:58)o Tyndall Ministry of (cid:38)oreign (cid:4)(cid:299)airs and Trade, (cid:69)ew (cid:127)ealand
(cid:75)ras Tyn(cid:364)(cid:364)ynen Parliament of (cid:38)inland
Stefaan (cid:115)ergote Directorate General for Climate (cid:4)c(cid:415)on, European Commission
Paul (cid:116)at(cid:364)inson Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development, (cid:38)rance
Melissa (cid:116)eit(cid:460) Environmental Protec(cid:415)on (cid:4)gency, United States
Mechthild (cid:116)(cid:386)rsd(cid:386)rfer Directorate General for Energy, European Commission
(cid:58)i (cid:127)ou (cid:69)a(cid:415)onal Center for Climate Change Strategy and Interna(cid:415)onal
Coopera(cid:415)on, China
The individuals and organisa(cid:415)ons that contributed to this study are not responsible for any
opinions or (cid:361)udgements it contains(cid:856) (cid:4)ll errors and omissions are solely the responsibility
of the IE(cid:4)(cid:856)

3
1
20 This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of the

EA, International Energy Agency.

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(cid:18)(cid:381)(cid:373)(cid:373)(cid:286)(cid:374)(cid:410)(cid:400)(cid:3)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:282)(cid:3)(cid:395)(cid:437)(cid:286)(cid:400)(cid:415)(cid:381)(cid:374)(cid:400)(cid:3)(cid:258)(cid:396)(cid:286)(cid:3)(cid:449)(cid:286)(cid:367)(cid:272)(cid:381)(cid:373)(cid:286)(cid:3)(cid:258)(cid:374)(cid:282)(cid:3)(cid:400)(cid:346)(cid:381)(cid:437)(cid:367)(cid:282)(cid:3)(cid:271)(cid:286)(cid:3)(cid:258)(cid:282)(cid:282)(cid:396)(cid:286)(cid:400)(cid:400)(cid:286)(cid:282)(cid:3)(cid:410)(cid:381)(cid:855)
Dr(cid:856) (cid:38)a(cid:415)h Birol
Chief Economist
Director, Directorate of Global Energy Economics
Interna(cid:415)onal Energy (cid:4)gency
(cid:1013), rue de la (cid:38)édéra(cid:415)on
(cid:1011)(cid:1009)(cid:1011)3(cid:1013) Paris Cedex 1(cid:1009)
(cid:38)rance
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements 3
Executive Summary 9
Climate and energy trends 13
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Introduction 14
The energy sector and climate change 15
Recent developments 18
International climate negotiations 19
National actions and policies with climate benefits 20
Global status of energy-related CO emissions 26
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Trends in energy demand and emissions in 2012 26
Historical emissions trends and indicators 29
Outlook for energy-related emissions and the 450 Scenario 33
Sectoral trends 36
Investment 38
Broader benefits of the 450 Scenario 39
Energy policies to keep the 2 °C target alive 43
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Introduction 44
GDP-neutral emissions abatement to 2020 45
Methodology and key assumptions 45
Emissions abatement to 2020 50
Abatement to 2020 by policy measure 53
Implications for the global economy 70
Building blocks for steeper abatement post-2020 75
The long-term implications of the 4-for-2 °C Scenario 75
Technology options for ambitious abatement post-2020 76
Policy frameworks post-2020 80
Managing climate risks to the energy sector 83
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Introduction 84
Impacts of climate change on the energy sector 84
Energy demand impacts 87
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Economic impact of climate policies on the energy sector 97
Existing carbon reserves and energy infrastructure lock-in 98
Power generation 101
Upstream oil and natural gas 106
Coal supply 110
Implications of delayed action 113
Annexes 117
Annex A. Units and conversion factors 117
Annex B. References 119
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