Central and East European Migrants’ Contributions to Social Protection

250 Pages·2013·2.513 MB·English

by  Sönke Maatsch (auth.)

StudiesinEconomicTransition
General Editors: Jens Hölscher, Reader in Economics, University of Brighton; and Horst
Tomann,ProfessorofEconomics,FreeUniversityBerlin
Thisserieshasbeenestablishedinresponsetoagrowingdemandforagreaterunderstanding
ofthetransformationofeconomicsystems.Itbringstogethertheoreticalandempiricalstudies
oneconomictransitionandeconomicdevelopment.Thepost-communisttransitionfrom
plannedtomarketeconomiesisoneofthemainareasofappliedtheorybecauseinthisfield
themostdramaticexamplesofchangeandeconomicdynamicscanbefound.Theseriesaims
tocontributetotheunderstandingofspecificmajoreconomicchangesaswellastoadvance
thetheoryofeconomicdevelopment.Theimplicationsofeconomicpolicywillbeamajor
pointoffocus.
Titlesinclude:
TilmanBrukandHartmutLehmann(editors)
INTHEGRIPOFTRANSITION
EconomicandSocialConsequencesofRestructuringinRussiaandUkraine
LucianCernat
EUROPEANIZATION, VARIETIES OF CAPITALISM AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN
CENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPE
BrunoDallago(editor)
TRANSFORMATIONANDEUROPEANINTEGRATION
TheLocalDimension
BrunoDallagoandIchiroIwasaki(editors)
CORPORATERESTRUCTURINGANDGOVERNANCEINTRANSITIONECONOMIES
HellaEngerer
PRIVATIZATIONANDITSLIMITSINCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPE
PropertyRightsinTransition
SaulEstrin,GrzegorzW.KolodkoandMilicaUvalic(editors)
TRANSITIONANDBEYOND
DanielaGabor
CENTRALBANKINGANDFINANCIALIZATION
ARomanianAccountofHowEasternEuropeBecameSubprime
OlehHavrylyshyn
DIVERGENTPATHSINPOST-COMMUNISTTRANSFORMATION
CapitalismforAllorCapitalismfortheFew?
IrajHoshi,PaulJ.J.WelfensandAnnaWziatek-Kubiak(editors)
INDUSTRIALCOMPETITIVENESSANDRESTRUCTURINGINENLARGEDEUROPE
HowAccessionCountriesCatchUpandIntegrateintheEuropeanUnion
BjörnJindra
INTERNATIONALISATIONTHEORYANDTECHNOLOGICALACCUMULATION
AnInvestigationoftheMultinationalAffiliatesinEastGermany
MihaelaKelemanandMonikaKostera(editors)
CRITICALMANAGEMENTRESEARCHINEASTERNEUROPE
ManagingtheTransition
DavidLane(editor)
THETRANSFORMATIONOFSTATESOCIALISM
SystemChange,Capitalism,orSomethingElse?
DavidLaneandMartinMyant(editors)
VARIETIESOFCAPITALISMINPOST-COMMUNISTCOUNTRIES
JensLowitzsch
ECONOMICGROWTHANDSTRUCTURALFEATURESOFTRANSITION
SönkeMaatsch
FINANCIALPARTICIPATIONOFEMPLOYEESINTHEEU-27
EnricoMarelliandMarcelloSignorelli(editors)
CENTRALANDEASTEUROPEANMIGRANTS’CONTRIBUTIONSTOSOCIALPROTECTION
TomaszMickiewicz
ECONOMICTRANSITIONINCENTRALEUROPEANDTHECOMMONWEALTHOF
INDEPENDENTSTATES
TomaszMickiewicz
ECONOMICSOFINSTITUTIONALCHANGESECONDEDITION
CentralandEasternEuropeRevisited
MilanNikolic´
MONETARYPOLICYINTRANSITION
InflationNexusMoneySupplyinPostcommunistRussia
JuliePellegrin
THEPOLITICALECONOMYOFCOMPETITIVENESSINANENLARGEDEUROPE
StanislavPoloucek(editor)
REFORMINGTHEFINANCIALSECTORINCENTRALEUROPEANCOUNTRIES
JohannesStephan(editor)
TECHNOLOGYTRANSFERVIAFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTINCENTRALAND
EASTERNEUROPE
HorstTomann
MONETARYINTEGRATIONINEUROPE
PasqualeTridico
INSTITUTIONS,HUMANDEVELOPMENTANDECONOMICGROWTHIN
TRANSITIONECONOMIES
MilicaUvalic
SERBIA’STRANSITION
TowardsaBetterFuture
HansvanZon
RUSSIA’SDEVELOPMENTPROBLEM
TheCultofPower
Thefulllistoftitlesavailableisonthewebsite:
www.palgrave.com/economics/set.asp
StudiesinEconomicTransition
SeriesStandingOrderISBN9780–333–73353–0
(outsideNorthAmericaonly)
Youcanreceivefuturetitlesinthisseriesastheyarepublishedbyplacingastandingorder.
Pleasecontactyourbookselleror,incaseofdifficulty,writetousattheaddressbelowwith
yournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesandtheISBNquotedabove.
Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke,
HampshireRG216XS,England
Central and East European
Migrants’ Contributions
to Social Protection
Sönke Maatsch
UniversityofBremen,Germany
©SönkeMaatsch2013
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-0-230-35525-5
Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis
publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission.
Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted
savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe
Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence
permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency,
SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS.
Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication
maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages.
Theauthorhasassertedhisrighttobeidentifiedastheauthorofthiswork
inaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
Firstpublished2013by
PALGRAVEMACMILLAN
PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited,
registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke,
HampshireRG216XS.
PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC,
175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010.
PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies
andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld.
Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates,
theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries
ISBN 978-1-349-34695-0 ISBN 978-1-137-29581-1 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137295811
Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully
managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing
processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe
countryoforigin.
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13
ToAleksandra
This page intentionally left blank
Contents
ListofFigures xi
ListofTables xii
PrefaceandAcknowledgements xv
ListofAbbreviations xvii
Introduction 1
FearsofEast–Westmigrationintheoldmemberstates
priortotheenlargements 1
East–Westmigrationflowsbetween2001and2010 2
Sixyearsafterthefirstenlargement:nodiscernibleimpact
onsocialsecurityinWesternEurope 3
Resolvingthepuzzle 5
Structureofthebook 10
1 WhoMigrates?Theory,LessonsfromthePast,and
LatestData 12
Themicroeconomictheoryofmigration 13
Immigrationintowelfarestates:theBorjasmodel 15
Positiveself-selection:thehumancapitalmodeland
thebraindrain 17
Conclusionsfromthemicroeconomictheoryof
migration:contextmatters 18
Lessonsfromthepast:patternsofmigrationinEurope
untilthelate1980s 19
MassmigrationtoWesternEurope 20
MigrationpatternsinCentralandEasternEurope 25
The‘new’migration:East–Westmovementssincethelate
1980s 28
East–Westmigrationpriorto2004 29
Accelerationofmigrationafterthe2004enlargement 30
Explainingmigration:thecontributionandthelimitsof
economictheory 32
2 AreWelfareStatesEndangeredbyMigration?The
PerspectiveofEconomicTheory 36
Economicrationalesforredistribution 38
Pigouvianwelfareeconomics 39
vii
viii Contents
Redistributionasapublicgood 41
Medianvoter 44
Theimpactofmigration 45
Mobilerecipients 48
Mobiletaxbase 61
Majorityvotewithcontinuaofindividuals 69
Studiesofthenetfiscalimpactofimmigrants 78
Summaryoffindingsintheliterature 79
3 AModelofEUEastwardEnlargement 83
Distributionofhumancapitalandtax-settinginautarky 85
Theimpactofmigrationonhumancapitaldistributions 90
Impactofmigrationinthesendingcountry 92
Impactofmigrationinthedestinationcountry 92
Tax-settingandmigrationpolicy 94
Benchmarkcase:constrainingminimumhuman
capitalrequirements 95
Non-constrainingbarrierstomigration 100
Proscriptionofmigrationbarriers 103
Lowwagesformigrants 104
Impactofwagegaponmigrationincentives 105
Optimalimmigrationwithwagegapinthe
destinationcountry 105
Conclusion:redistributionin‘East’pronetobemost
affected 106
4 EUSocialLegislationandNationalSocialPolicies 110
Generalprinciplesandprovisions 111
Freedomofmovement 111
Entitlementtosocialbenefits 112
RegulationsconcerningtheEasternenlargement 114
FreemovementforCEE-10citizensduringthe
pre-accessionphase 114
Transitionalperiodforthefreedomofmovementof
persons 115
ScopeoftheauthorisedderogationsfromtheTEC
regardingthefreemovementofpersons 116
Overviewofredistributiveelementsinnationalsocial
policies 119
Redistributiveelementsinsocialsecuritysystems 121
ComparisonoftheEUmemberstates’socialpolicies 123
SocialpoliciesintheEuropeanUnion:diversityprevails 125
Contents ix
5 Latestdata:WhatDoWeKnowaboutthe‘New
Migration’? 129
Totalnumberofmigrantsbycountriesoforiginand
destination 130
Pastforecastsofpost-enlargementmigration
potentials 131
AnalysisofEast–WestmigrationflowsaftertheEU
Eastwardenlargements 136
FutureEast–Westmigration–outlook 139
Qualificationsandagestructureofmigrants 140
Germany:refugees,ethnicGermans,andlabour
migration 140
Ireland:immigrationasanewphenomenon 143
Labourmarketperformanceofmigrants 145
LabourmarketperformanceofCEEimmigrantsin
Germany 148
LabourmarketperformanceofCEEimmigrantsin
Ireland 157
6 NationalSocialPoliciesintheLightoftheEastern
Enlargement 164
Publicpensions 165
Anoverlapping-generationsmodelofpensions 166
PublicpensionsinPolandandLithuania:emigration
asa‘contributionsdrain’ 168
Germanpublicpensions:gainsfrommigration
despitelowerearnings 172
Summary:impactofEast–Westmigrationonpublic
pensions 178
Unemploymentbenefits 179
UnemploymentbenefitsinPoland:losingtwicefrom
emigration 180
UnemploymentbenefitsinLatvia:redistributing
betweenriskgroupsonly 183
CEEimmigrantsinGermany:highunemployment
despitegoodqualifications 184
UnemploymentinsuranceinIreland:lowimmigrant
wagesburdenfinancialbalance 186
Summaryofresults 187
Conclusions 190
Appendix1 MigrationData 195