The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960-2000

474 Pages·2007·3.2 MB·English

by  Benno J. Ndulu

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ThePoliticalEconomyofEconomicGrowthinAfrica,
1960–2000
Theperiodfrom1960to2000wasoneofremarkablegrowthandtrans-
formationintheworldeconomy.WhydidmostofSub-SaharanAfricafail
todevelopoverthisperiod?WhydidafewsmallAfricaneconomiessuc-
ceedspectacularly?ThePoliticalEconomyofEconomicGrowthinAfrica,
1960–2000 is by far the most ambitious and comprehensive assessment
ofAfrica’spost-independenceeconomicperformancetodate.Volume1
examinestheimpactofresourcewealthandgeographicalremotenesson
Africa’sgrowthanddevelopsanewdatasetofgovernanceregimescovering
allofSub-SaharanAfrica.Separatechaptersanalyzethedominantpatterns
ofgovernanceobservedovertheperiodandtheirimpactongrowth,the
ideologicalformationofthepoliticalelite,therootsofpoliticalviolence
andreform,andthelessonsofthe1960–2000periodforcontemporary
growthstrategy.Volume2containsthetwenty-sixdetailedcountrystud-
ies on which these analyses are based. These volumes are an invaluable
resourceforresearchersandpolicy-makersconcernedwiththeeconomic
developmentofAfrica.
benno j. nduluisanAdvisortotheVicePresidentintheAfricaregion
oftheWorldBank.
stephen a. o’connell isaProfessorofEconomicsatSwarthmore
College.
robert h. bates isEatonProfessoroftheScienceofGovernmentat
HarvardUniversity.
paul collier isaProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofOxford.
chukwuma c. soludo isGovernoroftheCentralBankofNigeria.

The Political Economy of Economic
Growth in Africa, 1960–2000
Volume 1
Editedby
benno j. ndulu
stephen a. o’connell
robert h. bates
paul collier
chukwuma c. soludo
CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITY PRESS
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Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521878487
© African Economic Research Consortium 2008
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of
relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place
without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2007
ISBN-13 978-0-511-36669-7 eBook (EBL)
ISBN-10 0-511-36669-8 eBook (EBL)
ISBN-13 978-0-521-87848-7 hardback
ISBN-10 0-521-87848-9 hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls
for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not
guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Contents
Listoffigures [page vii]
Listoftables [ix]
Listofcontributors [xii]
Foreword [xv]
Listofacronyms [xviii]
part 1 overview
1 Policyplus:Africangrowthperformance,
1960–2000 [3]
BennoJ.NduluandStephenA.O’Connell
2 Opportunitiesandchoices [76]
PXaulCollierandStephenA.O’Connell
3 Anti-growthsyndromesinAfrica:asynthesis
ofthecasestudies [137]
AugustinKwasiFosu
part 2 interpretation
4 Domesticinterestsandcontrolregimes [175]
RobertH.Bates
5 Sacrificingthefuture:intertemporalstrategiesandtheir
implicationsforgrowth [202]
PaulCollierandJanWillemGunning
6 Thepoliticalgeographyofredistribution [225]
Jean-PaulAzam
7 Politicalconflictandstatefailure [249]
RobertH.Bates
8 Shocks,risk,andAfricangrowth [297]
JanWillemGunning
vi Contents
part 3 explanation
9 Theevolutionofglobaldevelopmentparadigmsand
theirinfluenceonAfricaneconomicgrowth [315]
BennoJ.Ndulu
10 Politicalreform [348]
RobertH.Bates
11 Endogenizingsyndromes [391]
PaulCollierandRobertH.Bates,withAnkeHoefflerand
StephenA.O’Connell
part 4 looking ahead
12 Harnessinggrowthopportunities:how
Africacanadvance [421]
PaulCollier,JanWillemGunning,StephenA.O’Connell,and
BennoJ.Ndulu
Index [439]
Figures
1.1 Country-levelgrowthperformanceinSSA,
1960–2000 [page7]
1.2 Episodalgrowthanalysis [11]
1.3 SmoothedaveragegrowthinrealGDPpercapita,
1960–2000 [19]
1.4 Growthaccountingovertime,1965–2000 [21]
1.5 Capitalaccumulationandgrowth [22]
1.6 Demographicpressures,SSAversusOtherdevelopingregions,
1960–2000 [32]
1.7 Lifeexpectancyandadultilliteracy,1960–2000 [34]
1.8 Democracy/autocracyandcivilliberties,1960–2000 [43]
1.9 Proportionofcountriesincivilwar,1960–2000 [45]
1.10 Policycoefficients,byhalf-decade,1960–2004 [51]
1.11 Policyvariablesovertime,1960–2000 [52]
1.12 ICRGinstitutionalperformancemeasures,1985–2000 [55]
1.13 Thepolicyenvironmentovertime,1960–2000 [63]
2.1 SmoothedgrowthratesofrealGDPpercapita,1960–2000 [78]
2.2 SimulatedrealGDPpercapita,1960–2000 [88]
2.3 Estimatedgrowthimpactofavoidingsyndromes [106]
2.4 CPIA,byregion,1977–2000 [108]
2.5 EffectonCPIAofavoidingsyndromes,1977–2000 [112]
2.6 Syndromesandexportdiversification,1979–2000 [116]
3.1 Policysyndromesinforty-sixSSAcountries,1960–2000 [139]
3.2 Policysyndromesintwenty-sixcase-studycountries,
post-independenceyears [158]
3.3 Evolution(frequencies)ofcontroltype,twenty-sevenSSAcase
studies,1960–2000 [162]
4.1 Policyregimesovertime,1965–1995 [185]
4.2 Policychoiceandpoliticalsystem [186]
4.3 Militarygovernmentandpolicyregime [186]
4.4 Partysystemsovertime,1970–1995 [186]
4.5 Militarygovernmentsovertime,1970–1995 [187]
6.1 Ethnicrentandmigrationfailure [229]
viii Listoffigures
6.2 Payingforthepeace [232]
6.3 Theredistribution/deterrencetrade-off [236]
6.4 Thetriangularredistributiongame [239]
7.1 Civilwar,bycountryandbyyear,1970–1995 [254]
7.2 Civilwars,byyear,1970–1995 [256]
7.3 Totalnumberofyearsofcivilwar [256]
7.4 Civilwar,byopportunitygroup [257]
7.5 Thepathofplay [265]
7.6 Payoffsfromstrategychoices [266]
7.7 Rateoflossofoffice,byperiod,1970–1994 [286]
7.8 Formsofexitfromoffice,byperiod,1970–1994 [287]
7.9 Civilliberties,byyear,1970–1995 [289]
8.1 Growthandrisk [308]
9.1 Mediangovernmentconsumption,thirty-nineSSAversus
forty-fiveOtherdeveloping,1960–2000 [318]
9.2 SyndromesandleadershipinSSA,1970–2000 [325]
9.3 AnnualaverageCPIAscoresforthreepolicysyndromes,
1977–2000 [335]
9.4 PerformanceCPIAscoresinparadigmaticperiods,
1977–2000 [336]
9.5 Tanzania,CPIAscoresandgrowthsyndromes,1977–2001 [337]
9.6 Policysyndromesinforty-sixSSAcountries,1960–2000 [338]
11.1 Rulebyfearandpartysystem [400]
11.2 Rulebyfear [400]
11.3 Opportunitiesandpartysystem [403]
11.4 Opportunitiesandrulebyfear [403]
11.5 Opportunitiesandsyndromes [404]
11.6 Civilwar [404]