Table Of ContentOECD Economic Surveys V
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Australia, October 2008 Baltic States, February 2000 p
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Belgium, March 2007 Bulgaria, April 1999
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Canada, June 2008 Chile, November 2007 n
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Czech Republic, April 2008 China, September 2005 n
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Denmark, February 2008 India, October 2007 . 2
Euro area, January 2007 Indonesia, July 2008
European Union, September 2007 Romania, October 2002
Finland, June 2008 Russian Federation, November 2006
France, June 2007 Slovenia, May 1997
Germany, April 2008 South Africa, July 2008
Greece, May 2007 Ukraine, September 2007
Hungary, May 2007 Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, January 2003
Iceland, February 2008
Ireland, April 2008
Italy, June 2007
Japan, April 2008
Korea, June 2007
Luxembourg, June 2008
Mexico, September 2007
Netherlands, January 2008
New Zealand, April 2007 O
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Norway, August 2008 C
Poland, June 2008 D
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Portugal, June 2008 c
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Slovak Republic, April 2007 n
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Spain, November 2008 m
Sweden, December 2008 ic
Switzerland, November 2007 S
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Turkey, July 2008 rv
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United Kingdom, September 2007 y
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United States, May 2007 S
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Volume 2008/20 – December 2008
iSSn 0376-6438
Supplement no. 2 2008 SUbSCRiPTiOn De
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iSbn 978-92-64-05423-3 -:HSTCQE=UZYWXX: be Volume 2008/20 – December 2008
www.oecd.org/publishing 10 2008 20 1 P r 20 Supplement no. 2
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8
OECD
Economic Surveys
Sweden
2008
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents
Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Assessment and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Chapter 1. Key challenges for the Swedish economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
The Swedish model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
The current economic slowdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Medium-term assessment and key challenges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Annex 1.A1. Progress in structural reform. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Annex 1.A2. Labour force data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Chapter 2. Fiscal policy: What should the targets be?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
The current fiscal framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
What should guide the choice of future fiscal targets? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Are current policies sustainable given future fiscal pressures? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
How should public spending growth be tackled? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Chapter 3. Taxation and growth: What direction should Sweden take?. . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Tax revenue trends in an international perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
What overall direction should tax reforms take? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Capital and business taxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Social security contributions and personal income taxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Housing taxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Climate and environmental taxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Chapter 4. Education and youth employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Human capital and youth employment outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Compulsory education: ensuring a strong start . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Upper secondary education: preparing better for labour-market entry. . . . . . . . . . . 100
Higher education: shortening delays in study completion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SWEDEN – ISBN 978-92-64-05423-3 – © OECD 2008 3
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Labour markets: easing the impediments to youth employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Chapter 5. Privatisation: The next phase. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Why privatise? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
How to proceed with the privatisation programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
Boxes
1.1. The Swedish financial system and international financial turmoil. . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.2. Monetary policy and communication in Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.3. Immigrants’ labour market integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
1.4. Sickness and disability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
1.5. Housing market deregulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.1. Key elements of Sweden’s fiscal policy framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.2. Is a golden rule necessary?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.3. Summary of fiscal policy recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.1. Decomposing the international comparison of average annual hours worked . . . . 77
3.2. Estimated cross-country effects of taxes on hours worked. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.3. From a proportional value-based state housing tax to a capped
municipal fee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.4. Summary of tax recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
4.1. Education and youth employment policies in a Swedish economic context . . . 91
4.2. Immigrants and school drop-outs are most at risk of long-term
unemployment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.3. Proposals from the Upper Secondary Reform Commission
(Gymnasieutredningen). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4.4. What elements of the strict Swedish employment protection rules
may hamper youth entry?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4.5. Summary of education and youth employment recommendations . . . . . . . . . . 119
5.1. Evidence on the benefits of privatisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
5.2. Corporate governance of state-owned enterprises in Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
5.3. Summary of privatisation recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Tables
1.1. Short-term economic outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.2. Potential output growth and its components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1.3. Growth in market economy gross value added and its components. . . . . . . . . . 39
1.A2.1. Philips curve estimation results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.1. Fiscal balance and expenditure: have the targets been met? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.2. General government balance sheet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.1. Composition of tax revenue across OECD countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
3.2. The anatomy of a work year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SWEDEN – ISBN 978-92-64-05423-3 – © OECD 2008
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4.1. Estimated percentage differences in job-finding rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
5.1. Sweden central government-owned enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Figures
1.1. GDP per capita evolution and decomposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.2. Market openness and trust–key features of the Swedish model. . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.3. Indicators of equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.4. Income disparities went down, but labour market exclusion went up . . . . . . . . 22
1.5. Short-term economic indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.6. Business and consumer confidence have fallen sharply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.7. Inflation and inflation expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.8. Developments in market interest rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.9. Productivity should recover to its trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.10. Sickness absence and disability pensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
1.11. Actual and structural unemployment rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
1.12. Shift-share analysis of labour productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.1. Government spending as a share of GDP has fallen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.2. Government net financial assets is improving in Sweden. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
2.3. The fiscal position is expected to deteriorate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.4. Health and long-term care expenditure is not expected to rise
as much as in other countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.5. Sweden’s public finances appear sustainable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.6. User choice and competition in public services could be improved. . . . . . . . . . . 66
2.7. User fees are only moderately used at the local government level. . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
3.1. Trends in tax revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
3.2. Total labour supply is around average. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
3.3. Total marginal tax wedges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.4. Illustrative simulation: women’s labour supply if marginal
tax rates were at Australian levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.5. Distributional effects of the housing tax cut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.1. Educational attainment compared with other Nordics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.2. Youth unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.3. Learning outcomes in compulsory education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
4.4. Aspirations and attitudes towards science at the end
of compulsory education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4.5. Low between-school variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.6. Learning outcomes for immigrant and native students compared . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.7. Schools’ technical efficiency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.8. Wage premia, living costs and internal rates of return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.9. Students start and complete tertiary education late . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
4.10. The years between secondary and tertiary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.11. Share of youth in education, employment or inactivity by age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
4.12. Foreign students enrolled in tertiary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
4.13. Regulation of tertiary education providers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
4.14. Wage dispersion by age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
4.15. Temporary contracts compared internationally . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
4.16. Transitions in the Swedish labour market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SWEDEN – ISBN 978-92-64-05423-3 – © OECD 2008 5
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4.17. Strictness of employment protection legislation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
5.1. The Swedish State owns enterprises in a wide range of sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
5.2. Privatisation proceeds in OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
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This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review
Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of
member countries.
The economic situation and policies of Sweden were reviewed by the Committee on
9October2008. The draft report was then revised in the light of the discussions and given approval
as the agreed report of the whole Committee onThursday23October2008. It was further updated
to reflect the projections of the Economic Outlook published on 25November2008and financial
market developments through 12November2008.
The Secretariat’s draft report was prepared for the Committee by Jens Lundsgaard and
DavidTurvey under the supervision of VincentKoen. Research assistance was provided by
RoselyneJamin.
The previous Survey of Sweden was issued in February2007.
Information about the latest as well as previous Surveys and more information about how
Surveys are prepared is available at www.oecd.org/eco/surveys.
6 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SWEDEN – ISBN 978-92-64-05423-3 – © OECD 2008
BASIC STATISTICS OF SWEDEN
THE LAND
Land area, 1000sq. km 410 Inhabitants in major cities
Lakes, 1000sq. km 39 31December2007, thousands
Arable area, 1000sq. km 27 Stockholm 795
Woodland, 1000sq. km 227 Göteborg 494
Malmö 281
THE PEOPLE
Population 31December2007, thousands 9183 Civilian labour force2007, thousands 4838
Number of inhabitants per sq. km 22 Civilian employment2007, thousands 4541
Net natural increase2001-07, thousands 7.6 As a percentage of total
Net natural increase per 1000inhabitants, 2001-07 0.8 Agriculture, forestry, fishing 11.7
Net inward-migration2001-07, thousands 35.1 Industry (including construction) 30.7
Services 57.6
THE PRODUCTION
Gross domestic product2007, Kr billion 3071 Gross domestic product at factor cost
Gross domestic product per capita2007, USD 49670 by origin2007,per cent of total
Gross fixed capital formation, 2007 Agriculture 2.7
Per cent of GDP 18.9 Industry (including construction) 24.5
Per capita, USD 9408 Services 72.8
THE GOVERNMENT
Public consumption, 2007,per cent of GDP 25.9 Composition of Parliament
Public investment, 2007 Social democrats 130
Per cent of GDP 3.0 Moderates 97
Per cent of total investment 15.6 Liberals 28
Total general government current spending2007 Christian democrats 24
Per cent of GDP 51.4 Left 22
Total general government current revenue2007 Centre 29
Per cent of GDP 54.9 Greens 19
Total 349
Last general election : September2006
Next general election : September2010
THE FOREIGN TRADE
Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services
2007,per cent of GDP 49.5 2007,per cent of GDP 40.3
Main merchandise exports,per cent of total Main merchandise imports,per cent of total
January-July2008 January-July2008
Wood and paper products 10.8 Wood and paper products 2.9
Mineral products 11.4 Mineral products 10.0
Chemical products 11.4 Chemical products 12.5
Energy products 8.2 Energy products 15.0
Engineering products 47.5 Engineering products 41.7
Other products 10.7 Other products 17.9
THE CURRENCY
Monetary unit : Krona October2008, monthly average of spot rate
SEK per USD 7.43
SEK per euro 9.87
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive summary
T
hanks to strong economic institutions and fundamentals, Sweden is well prepared to cope with
fall-out from the global financial crisis. The cycle has turned and, clearly, the key near-term challenge
is to steer through the slowdown without jeopardising longer-run macroeconomic stability.
With sound structural reforms, material living standards have risen strongly in Sweden over
the past 10to 15years. Market opening has boosted productivity growth, and recent reforms have
curbed labour market exclusion and benefit dependency. The relative decline of previous decades is
gradually being reversed. This Survey focuses on how to further promote economic growth while
preserving social cohesion and examines the following policy challenges:
Keeping fiscal policy on a sustainable track and continuing tax reforms to promote
growth. The ample fiscal surplus and relatively low public debt allow for some policy easing, but the
fiscal framework should be strengthened by linking targets more clearly to long-term considerations.
Sweden used to have the highest tax-to-GDP ratio in the OECD but has started to move down the list.
The challenge now is to continue with tax cuts, focusing on the worst impediments to growth
resulting from corporate and personal income taxation –with due regard to equity concerns.
Improving education and employment outcomes for youth. Despite a high overall
employment-to-population ratio, youth unemployment is widespread. One reason is that with a high
wage floor and stringent employment protection rules, strong skills are required to get a regular job.
The quality of compulsory school can be improved, especially regarding mathematics and science.
Upper secondary education could make youth more “job ready”, notably via more work-place
contact. Students should complete higher education and enter the labour market earlier. Universities
could benefit from more freedom to develop, possibly based on tuition charging. But in the end,
disproportionate youth unemployment can probably only be overcome if also addressing the core
labour market rigidities.
Taking privatisation further. Starting with a large portfolio of government-owned
enterprises, it was easy to identify a list of first candidates for sale. Going forward, privatisation will
have to be taken further in those numerous areas where societal objectives are better served by open
but regulated markets rather than by public ownership.
8 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SWEDEN – ISBN 978-92-64-05423-3 – © OECD 2008
