Climate of the Past, Present and Future: A scientific debate

301 Pages·2022·10.01 MB·English

by  Javier Vinós

(cid:42)(cid:83)(cid:80)(cid:84)(cid:72)(cid:91)(cid:76)(cid:3)(cid:86)(cid:77)(cid:3)(cid:91)(cid:79)(cid:76)(cid:3)(cid:55)(cid:72)(cid:90)(cid:91)(cid:19)
(cid:55)(cid:89)(cid:76)(cid:90)(cid:76)(cid:85)(cid:91)(cid:3)(cid:72)(cid:85)(cid:75)(cid:3)(cid:45)(cid:92)(cid:91)(cid:92)(cid:89)(cid:76)
(cid:34)(cid:69)(cid:82)(cid:73)(cid:78)(cid:71)(cid:51)(cid:84)(cid:82)(cid:65)(cid:73)(cid:84)
(cid:44)(cid:79)(cid:78)(cid:71)
(cid:87)(cid:65)(cid:86)(cid:69)
(cid:85)(cid:75)
(cid:40)(cid:3)(cid:58)(cid:74)(cid:80)(cid:76)(cid:85)(cid:91)(cid:80)(cid:77)(cid:80)(cid:74)(cid:3)(cid:43)(cid:76)(cid:73)(cid:72)(cid:91)(cid:76)(cid:19)(cid:3)(cid:25)(cid:3)(cid:3)(cid:3)(cid:76)(cid:75)(cid:21)
(cid:36)(cid:53)(cid:38)(cid:55)(cid:44)(cid:38)
(cid:49)(cid:50)(cid:53)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:36)(cid:48)(cid:40)(cid:53)(cid:44)(cid:38)(cid:36)
(cid:40)(cid:56)(cid:53)(cid:50)(cid:51)(cid:40)
(cid:36)(cid:54)(cid:44)(cid:36)
(cid:36)(cid:54)(cid:44)(cid:36)
(cid:49)(cid:50)(cid:53)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:36)(cid:55)(cid:47)(cid:36)(cid:49)(cid:55)(cid:44)(cid:38)
(cid:36)(cid:41)(cid:53)(cid:44)(cid:38)(cid:36)
(cid:44)(cid:49)(cid:39)(cid:44)(cid:36)(cid:49)
(cid:54)(cid:50)(cid:56)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:36)(cid:48)(cid:40)(cid:53)(cid:44)(cid:38)(cid:36)
(cid:44)(cid:51)(cid:58)(cid:51)
(cid:35)(cid:76)(cid:79)(cid:85)(cid:68)(cid:35)(cid:79)(cid:86)(cid:69)(cid:82)(cid:8)(cid:5)(cid:9) (cid:36)(cid:54)(cid:44)(cid:36)
(cid:54)(cid:50)(cid:56)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:18)(cid:16) (cid:19)(cid:16) (cid:20)(cid:16) (cid:21)(cid:16) (cid:22)(cid:16)
(cid:36)(cid:55)(cid:47)(cid:36)(cid:49)(cid:55)(cid:44)(cid:38) (cid:49)(cid:50)(cid:53)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:51)(cid:36)(cid:38)(cid:44)(cid:41)(cid:44)(cid:38)
(cid:18)(cid:24)
(cid:18)(cid:22) (cid:36)(cid:49)(cid:55)(cid:36)(cid:53)(cid:38)(cid:55)(cid:44)(cid:38)(cid:36)
(cid:18)(cid:20) (cid:55)(cid:44)
(cid:38)
(cid:18)(cid:18) (cid:61)
(cid:18)(cid:16) (cid:51)(cid:72)(cid:79)(cid:82)(cid:84)
(cid:87)(cid:65)(cid:86)(cid:69)
(cid:35)(cid:9)(cid:17)(cid:24) (cid:37)(cid:72)(cid:85)(cid:76)(cid:81)(cid:74)
(cid:178)
(cid:8) (cid:54)(cid:87)(cid:85)(cid:68)(cid:76)(cid:87)
(cid:69)(cid:17)(cid:22)
(cid:82)
(cid:85) (cid:54)(cid:50)(cid:56)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:65)(cid:84)(cid:17)(cid:20) (cid:54)(cid:50)(cid:56)(cid:55)(cid:43) (cid:49)(cid:50)(cid:53)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:69)(cid:82) (cid:51)(cid:36)(cid:38)(cid:44)(cid:41)(cid:44)(cid:38)
(cid:80)(cid:17)(cid:18) (cid:36)(cid:48)(cid:40)(cid:53)(cid:44)(cid:38)(cid:36) (cid:51)(cid:36)(cid:38)(cid:44)(cid:41)(cid:44)(cid:38)
(cid:77)
(cid:69)
(cid:52)(cid:17)(cid:16)
(cid:24)
(cid:74)(cid:97)(cid:3)(cid:50)(cid:73)(cid:94)(cid:81)(cid:77)(cid:90)
(cid:22)
(cid:20) (cid:49)(cid:50)(cid:53)(cid:55)(cid:43)
(cid:18) (cid:36)(cid:48)(cid:40)(cid:53)(cid:44)(cid:38)(cid:36)
(cid:16)
(cid:49)(cid:72)(cid:93)(cid:80)(cid:76)(cid:89)(cid:3)(cid:61)(cid:80)(cid:85)(cid:125)(cid:90)
(cid:45)(cid:86)(cid:89)(cid:76)(cid:94)(cid:86)(cid:89)(cid:75)(cid:3)(cid:73)(cid:96)(cid:3)(cid:49)(cid:92)(cid:75)(cid:80)(cid:91)(cid:79)(cid:3)(cid:42)(cid:92)(cid:89)(cid:89)(cid:96)
I
Climate of the Past,
Present and Future
II
III
Climate of the Past, Present and Future
A Scientific Debate, 2nd ed.
Javier Vinós
(cid:53)
(cid:37)(cid:2)
Critical Science Press
Madrid
2022
IV
Copyright © 2022 Javier Vinós
Some rights reserved
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)
[email protected]
Cover image: Spilhaus continuous ocean projection displaying 1955-2012 average sea surface temperature at 2 °C contour
interval after Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Antonov JI et al (2013) World Ocean Atlas 2013. Volume 1: Temperature. In:
Levitus S & Mishonov A (eds) NOAA Atlas NESDIS 73. Global annual afternoon cloudiness derived from observations
from the Aqua satellite (NASA). ©Author 2022. Some rights reserved. CC BY-NC 4.0
Published by Critical Science Press
ISBN: 978-84-125867-0-1 (Hardcover)
V
To my parents, José Antonio and María del Carmen, and to my children, Blanca and Miguel.
May the torch of knowledge and progress be handed to the next generation.
VI
VII
CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES XI
PREFACE XV
FOREWORD XVII
ABBREVIATIONS XIX
1 INTRODUCTION 1
Outstanding questions in climate change 1
References 4
2 THE GLACIAL CYCLE 5
2.1 Introduction 5
2.2 Milankovitch Theory 5
2.2.1 Eccentricity 5
2.2.2 Obliquity 6
2.2.3 Precession 6
2.2.4 Modern interpretation of Milankovitch Theory 7
2.3 Problems with Milankovitch Theory 7
2.3.1 The Mid-Pleistocene transition 8
2.3.2 The 100-kyr problem 8
2.3.3 The causality problem 9
2.3.4 The asymmetry problem 10
2.3.5 The 41-kyr problem 10
2.4 Evidence that interglacial pacing does not follow a 100-kyr cycle 10
2.5 Evidence that obliquity, and not precession, sets the pacing of interglacials 11
2.5.1 Obliquity controlled glaciations before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition 11
2.5.2 Interstadials are still under obliquity control 11
2.5.3 Temperature shows a clear response to obliquity-linked changes in 70–90° insolation 12
2.5.4 Temperature responds poorly to precession-linked changes in insolation 12
2.5.5 Temperature shows better phase agreement with obliquity 14
2.5.6 Temperature changes almost perfectly match obliquity changes 14
2.5.7 Interglacials show a duration consistent with obliquity cycles 14
2.5.8 Obliquity-paced interglacials solve all Milankovitch Theory problems 14
2.6 The 100-kyr ice cycle 14
2.7 Interglacial determination for the past million years 16
2.8 Summer energy as the relevant insolation forcing 18
2.9 Interglacials of atypical duration 20
2.10 Role of obliquity in the glacial cycle 21
2.11 Role of CO2 in the glacial cycle 22
2.12 Conclusions 23
References 23
3 THE DANSGAARD–OESCHGER CYCLE 27
3.1 Introduction 27
3.2 Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations 27
3.3 Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations in the Antarctic record 29
3.4 Does the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle have a periodicity? 32
3.5 Conditions for the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle 34
3.6 The Bølling–Allerød and Younger Dryas as part of the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle 35
3.7 Consensus Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle theory and challenges 36
3.8 Mechanistic explanation of the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle 37
3.9 Tidal cycles as an explanation for Dansgaard–Oeschger triggering mechanism 40
3.10 Conclusions 42
References 43
VIII
4 HOLOCENE CLIMATIC VARIABILITY 45
4.1 Introduction 45
4.2 Holocene general climate trend 46
4.3 The controversial role of greenhouse gases during the Holocene 48
4.4 The Holocene Climatic Optimum 49
4.5 The Mid-Holocene Transition and the end of the African Humid Period 50
4.6 The Neoglacial period 55
4.7 Holocene climate variability 56
4.8 Bond events and other Abrupt Climatic Events 59
4.9 Holocene millennial cycles 62
4.10 Conclusions 63
References 63
5 THE 2500-YEAR BRAY CYCLE 67
5.1 Introduction 67
5.2 The biological 2500-year climate cycle 67
5.3 The glaciological 2500-year climate cycle 67
5.4 The atmospheric 2500-year climate cycle 69
5.5 The oceanic 2500-year climate cycle 70
5.6 The hydrological 2500-year climate cycle 73
5.7 The temperature 2500-year cycle 73
5.8 The solar variability 2500-year cycle 76
5.9 2300-year Hallstatt versus 2500-year Bray 79
5.10 The solar–climate relationship 81
5.11 Solar variability effect on climate 83
5.12 Conclusions 86
References 86
6 THE EFFECT OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN SOCIETIES OF THE PAST 89
6.1 Introduction 89
6.2 The solar minima of the 2500-yr Bray cycle 89
6.3 The 10.3 kyr event. The Boreal Oscillation 90
6.4 The 8.2 kyr climate complex 92
6.5 The 7.7 kyr event. The Boreal/Atlantic transition 93
6.6 The 5.2 kyr event. The Mid-Holocene Transition and the start of the Neoglacial period 96
6.7 The 2.8 kyr event. The Sub-Boreal/Sub-Atlantic Minimum 99
6.8 The 0.5 kyr event. The Little Ice Age 102
6.9 Climatic effects of solar grand minima 106
6.10 Conclusions 107
References 107
7 THE ELUSIVE 1500-YEAR HOLOCENE CYCLE 111
7.1 Introduction 111
7.2 What must we expect of a Holocene 1500-year cycle? 111
7.3 The 1500-year periodicity during the Holocene 112
7.4 The oceanic 1500-year cycle 113
7.5 The atmospheric 1500-year cycle 114
7.6 The 4.2 kyr event 115
7.7 Storminess, drift ice and tidal effects 116
7.8 Ending the confusion about the 1500-year cycle 118
7.9 Conclusions 120
References 120
8 CENTENNIAL TO MILLENNIAL SOLAR CYCLES 123
8.1 Introduction 123
8.2 The millennial Eddy solar cycle 123
8.3 The 210-year de Vries solar cycle 127
8.4 The 88-year Gleissberg solar cycle 128
8.5 Other solar periodicities 129
8.6 The 100-year Feynman and 50-year Pentadecadal solar cycles 129
8.7 Solar cycles interrelation 131
IX
8.8 Conclusions 134
References 134
9 GREENHOUSE GASES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 137
9.1 Introduction 137
9.2 Towards a greenhouse theory of climate 138
9.3 Past atmospheric changes and climate evolution 140
9.3.1 The Faint Sun Paradox 140
9.3.2 Phanerozoic climate 141
9.3.3 Earth's proposed thermostat 144
9.3.4 Cenozoic climate 145
9.3.5 Phanerozoic climatic cycles 146
9.4 Radiative forcing and anthropogenic effect 148
9.5 Climate feedbacks 150
9.6 The CO2 hypothesis of climate change 151
9.7 Climate change attribution 152
9.8 Conclusions 154
References 154
10 MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT, A SOLAR-MODULATED FUNDAMENTAL CLIMATE PROPERTY 157
10.1 Introduction 157
10.2 Planetary transport of energy by the atmosphere 157
10.3 Arctic winter heat transport by the atmosphere 160
10.4 El Niño/Southern Oscillation as part of the meridional transport system, modulated by the sun 165
10.5 The Sun, QBO and ENSO modulation of stratosphere–troposphere coupling 167
10.6 The meridional transport of momentum 170
10.7 Conclusions 174
References 174
11 MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT AND SOLAR VARIABILITY ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE 177
11.1 Introduction 177
11.2 Volcanic effects on meridional transport 177
11.3 The circa 65-year oscillation and the stadium-wave hypothesis 181
11.4 The Climatic Shift of 1997–98 184
11.5 Meridional transport modulation of global climate 187
11.6 The search for a controversial sun-climate connection 191
11.7 The Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis 192
11.8 An outline for planetary climatology 198
11.9 Conclusions 201
References 201
12 MODERN GLOBAL WARMING 207
12.1 Introduction 207
12.2 Modern Global Warming is consistent with Holocene climatic cycles 207
12.3 Modern Global Warming is within Holocene variability 208
12.4 Modern Global Warming coincides with an increase in solar activity 210
12.5 Modern Global Warming displays an unusual cryosphere response 210
12.6 Extremely unusual CO2 levels during the last quarter of Modern Global Warming 213
12.7 Relationship between CO2 levels and temperature during Modern Global Warming 213
12.8 Uniform variation in sea level during Modern Global Warming 216
12.9 Modern Global Warming and the CO2 hypothesis 217
12.10 Modern Global Warming attribution 219
12.11 Conclusions 220
References 221
13 21ST CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE 225
13.1 Introduction 225
13.2 Changes in CO2 emissions and atmospheric levels 225
13.3 Fossil fuel changes 227
13.4 Changes in solar activity 229
13.5 A mid-21st century solar grand minimum is highly improbable 230
13.6 Changes in global surface average temperature anomaly 231